Shy Republicans?
What polls might not be telling us
Most readers are well aware that openly supporting Republicans, especially Trump Republicans, may put a target on one’s back. Opposing the Biden Regime and/or wokeness can risk being vilified, losing one’s job or business, and having one’s civic freedoms curtailed, including free speech and access to the financial system.
For any reader who thinks I am overstating the situation, 1. I’m not and 2. Wake up and look and listen! But for purposes of this article, at least concede that my contention is a widespread perception among conservatives. We may disagree on who is to blame for that, but let’s leave that aside for now.
Some of those many who perceive (again, rightly or wrongly for purposes of this post, but you know my strong opinion) that the current Democrat government wishes to eliminate opposition from civic life will be reluctant to express their opposition to a pollster. Most of those who profoundly mistrust Democrats also mistrust polls anyway. So why bother taking the perceived risk of letting some pollster know your vehement opposition to the current government?
Therefore, I’ve been thinking polls are missing a significant amount of opposition to Democrats. Call this the Shy Republican effect, not unlike the Shy Tory effect familiar to those across the Pond. And while I was thinking this, lo and behold, I came across a pollster thinking along the same lines.
From Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group polling firm:
"This year, our fear is that people are not going to be polled that are Trump supporters because all that Biden has said, and all the apparent attacks, and people coming after them and they're just hesitant even to participate," Cahaly told Fox News host Dan Bongino on Saturday night's edition of "Unfiltered with Dan Bongino."
"I think everybody will underestimate them, including us…”
The problem is this probably can only be his educated guess and mine. How does one find out why people do not answer polls? Do you poll people who don’t respond to polls why they don’t respond to polls? Good luck with that!
And I have not even addressed those who have such contempt for polls — and may be slightly naughty — that they lie to pollsters.
So we are pretty much left to common sense. And it’s common sense that if those in power threaten political opposition enough, at least some of the opposition will go underground until it’s time to strike, either by voting or other means.
November might be much more interesting than polls are revealing.